The Shutout Continues - It's Like the Goober Doesn't Even Care

First the obligatory update to the score of me and the Goober.  Last week I predicted 31 deaths in San Diego County from CoViD-19 for the week ending August 22.  The final total was 34.  That's off by all of 10%.  The result of 34 observed deaths per week works out to about 1.02 deaths per week per 100,000 for San Diego County.  The Goober appeared to be willing to tolerate about 7 deaths per week per 100,000.  This works out to a prediction of above 230 deaths per week in SD County - and would use our current rate of about 80 cases per week per 100,000 to predict 186 deaths for the week, which is off by 447%.  I would argue that my prediction is way more than just a bit better than the Goober's.  So the new score is Goober Newsom: 0, Me: 7.  My prediction for the week ending August 29 is 34 (updated table at bottom of post).

But really the Goober doesn't care about any of all that.  I say this because our death totals are way below what we should be willing to tolerate according to the Goober, and we've been off the "Watch List" for almost a full week (and should have been off for almost two weeks), you'd think we'd know what we can now do, that had been curtailed when we went on the list.  But, Noooo.  Our Goober simply refuses to to tell us what we can or can't do.  And like the obedient little pawns that they are, all our local politicians seem willing to meekly wait for the Goober to do what he should have done over 50 days ago.  I am waiting for one of politicians to take the bull by the horns and say, 'Obviously we can just go back to where we were before we got on the list.' 

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Table 1.  Predictions and results through last week (week ending  08/22/2020) and my prediction for this week.

Week Ending	Prediction	Observed
7/04/2020	54	27
7/11/2020	49	35
7/18/2020	61	56
7/25/2020	51	55
8/01/2020	53	32
8/08/2020	44	29
8/15/2020	45	32
8/22/2020	31	34
8/29/2020	34	??