A (Late) Update

It has been two weeks since my last update, so I have to do two predictions (even though one is somewhat of a 'trust me' nature), and perhaps I should explain why it is late.  I didn't do an update last week because I was on a vacation, with Mrs. Ohioan and one of our sons, his wife, and their two kids.  I know that our Goober would have a complete melt down over such a 'reckless' action, but I believe in the data and my analysis thereof.  Anyways, we spent last weekend and the early part of the week in a small town in the northern part of Kern County, CA.  We spent a lot of time hiking or lounging in the (cold!) Kern River, just the six of us, while only rarely getting anywhere near anyone else.  It is a beautiful area.  The images below show the view upriver from a spot north of Kernville.  If you can cross your eyes to make three images, and keep your focus on the center image, there should be a fairly decent 3-Dimensional image.  The second image is from the Trail of 100 Giants (which is an hour more north in the Sequoia National Forest).  It lacks scale, so I will simply say, it is one big mother of a tree...

A view up the Kern River.

A Sequoia Tree on the Trail of 100 Giants, Sequoia National Forest.

Now that the travel log is done, back to the serious business of updating the score.

As of the last post I had left a prediction of 44 deaths for the week ending August 8.  The final total was 29.  Had I been at home I would have then predicted that the total deaths for the week ending August 15 would have been 45.  The actual total was 32.  So that's two more for me, with the shutout continuing.  The score is now Goober Newsom: 0, Me: 6.  The prediction for next week (ending August 22) is 31.  The full scoreboard is in the table at the bottom of the post.

In another happening, that further shows how much our Goober is playing at being a petty tyrant who wants to destroy our economy and control our lives (puny things he considers them to be), San Diego county has reduced our case rate to below the level where we should have come off the Goober's "Watch List" as of this past Friday.  So have we been allowed to reopen all the business that were closed, or forced outside, when we got on the Watch List?  Of course not.  Why?  Because while they had defined the requirement to get off the list, the Goober never indicated what would happen when that happened.  Further, when we hit that point, the Goober's office refused to remove San Diego County, while they 'review' the data (note: no such review was necessary when they put us on the list, they trusted our data then, but not now - convenient, isn't it?).  

Here is a case where I am now furious with our mayor.  We know we are (should be) off the list.  The Goober has not defined what happens now.  What did the mayor do?  He wrote a letter asking what's next.  Insane.  I mean, seriously, he's had 40 days to define the exit strategy, and didn't, so why ask this waste of skin what he wants?  That's just playing into letting him control us even more.  Stop asking for permission, take advantage of the vacuum!  Tell the Goober, 'you screwed up by not defining what happens, so we will.  In as much as a bunch of stuff happened when we went on the list, so now that we are off it, all that stuff ends.'  Done.

One last semi-rant.  So the champion of the Democrat Party tells us that he'd order all of us to wear masks for three months (which would piss everybody off from now until... oh, how about that? ...until the election).  But don't worry he said “ 'It’s not about your rights,' ”.  I have a simple rule.  When someone says "it's not about the money", it is about the money.  Same thing here.  It is nice to know that the same people who support the rioter's, uhm... looter's, uhm... protester's, yeah, that's it, protester's right to assemble during a pandemic don't care about the rights of other people to choose.  Unless it is a woman's right to choose.  And they believe all women.  Unless what the women are saying is against one of their guys - right Kamela?  Finally, if anyone is doubting Biden's mental decline, go watch the section from 0:50-2:15 in this.  The Biden of 2008?  Him, I could actually vote for.  I can't vote for 2020's Biden.  And as a Californian (and an Ohioan@Heart) I really can't vote for Kamela.  For anything.  Ever.

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Table 1.  Predictions and results through last week (week ending  08/15/2020) and my prediction for this week.

Week Ending	Prediction	Observed
7/04/2020	54	27
7/11/2020	49	35
7/18/2020	61	56
7/25/2020	51	55
8/01/2020	53	32
8/08/2020	44	29
8/15/2020	45	32
8/22/2020	31	??