Just a Quick Scoring Update

Recap:

As of last week the score was Goober Newsom: 0, Me: 3.

Update:

I have updated the table from last week to reflect the results for last prediction and to include my next prediction.  So let me remind you why the deaths have not gone up sharply even though the cases have.  It is simply because the cases have shifted away from the oldest (and most vulnerable) to the youngest (and least vulnerable).  Just to give a comparison, prior to when our Goober set his metrics, the profile was that 0-40 year olds were about 36% of the cases, 40-50 year olds were about 37%, and 60+ were the remaining 27% (but that last group was responsible for nearly 90% of the deaths).  From June 6 through today the case percentages are 60%, 27%, and 13%, respectively.  Further, the death rates are simply lower today than they were early on (I can't say why with any certainty, but with the great increase in tracing and testing we are undoubtedly identifying many asymptomatic - or nearly asymptomatic - cases that would not have been identified earlier, and I suspect that the treatments are also improving).  By the way, even with the massive reduction in the percentage of cases over 60, that age group still represents around 85% of the total deaths.  So keeping that group from getting the disease is still the most important thing we can do to keep the deaths down.

Anyways, even though my predictions are not great, they are reliable enough to have confidence that, so long as the demographic distribution for the new cases remains dominated by those under 40, and the total cases over 60 stays under control, there is simply no reason to keep San Diego County under the Goobers Thumb, err, I mean under the Goober's Watch List.

Oh, and just to actually do a scoring update, the score is now Goober Newsom: 0, Me: 4.  Let the shut out continue.

One short somewhat related rant:

So our Goober has also decided that as long as we are on his Watch List, schools can not reopen for in person classes until we get under the watch list conditions, and stay there for two consecutive 14 day periods.  This despite the fact that to get on the Watch List only required to miss the mark over one 14 day period, and to continue to fail for two more consecutive days.  So it is easier to get on the list than off (since he wants to control our lives!).  Also, and let's be clear here, the real reason he wants the schools closed is because the teacher's unions want that.  See they will get paid, whether they are in the class room, or at home.  The fact is that some families, who have two working parents, have great difficulty with distance learning.  But the teachers unions don't care about them or their kids, and the Democratic politicians only care that they keep getting all those tax dollars to campaign with (legally laundered through the teacher's unions, of course).  

And for the coup de grace, our wonderful, oh-so-caring, Goober will not suspend the highly contentious AB5 independent contractor rules for those parents (and groups of parents) that want to hire tutors to help get their kids through the forced online instruction (I typed learning, but given the reports on the utter failure that online 'learning' was shown to be by the end of last school year, I decided that I couldn't really use that word).

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Table 1.  Predictions and results through last week (week ending  08/01/2020) and my prediction for this week.

Week Ending	New Prediction	Observed
7/04/2020	54	27
7/11/2020	49	35
7/18/2020	61	56
7/25/2020	51	55
8/01/2020	53	32
8/08/2020	44	??