There is Always Something New, at the Zoo

Shortly after moving to San Diego, Mrs Ohioan and I joined, have remained, members of the San Diego Zoological Society.  We've gone to the 'World Famous San Diego Zoo' (and the Safari Park) more times than we can count.  First we went there with our kids.  Then just the two of us.  Now its back to with the kids, but with the bonus of going and with their kids, too.  I can't tell you how often we've turned to each other at the Zoo and said, "I've never seen THAT before.  Well, there's always something new to see at the Zoo."  Today was no exception, except that it wasn't so much something new to see, as it was something new to hear.

Enjoy. 

Llamas vocalizing

The Ignored 86,000 - RIP

It would be an understatement to say that I've been watching the CoViD-19 case and death data, it's more like obsessing over it.  But this past Friday (in order to write a comment over on KT's blog), I actually did a quick analysis of then current CDC data for 'excess deaths' during the CoViD-19 epidemic.   To be blunt I was shocked to find out the excess deaths added up to 251,257 (for the time period March 25 - August 11).  I was shocked because the total deaths attributed to CoViD-19 (again by CDC) on the last day covered by that data was only 165,148 [NOTE: I actually quoted 201,000 over on KT's blog, but I had not taken into account that the excess death data wasn't through September 16, but more than 5 weeks sooner on Aug 11!].  That's why I'm saying that there are over 86,000 excess deaths that are unaccounted for.  That my friends is more than 34% of the total excess.

What has caused all these deaths, and why is no one talking about them?

In my comment I suggested that the causes might be 

"the unintended consequence of the lockdowns/economic strangulation (suicide, domestic abuse, or maybe even people not being able/willing to get proper medical care for other conditions jump to my mind as possibilities)."

So over the last couple of days I have searched obsessively for any data to try to figure out if any or all of these causes might explain such a large number of deaths.  Let's take them one at a time.

For suicides the latest data I could find on the CDC site was through 2017 (worthless!).  I did manage to find a couple of data points.  In an online article they state that

"The spike in suicides in Cook County is especially pronounced in the Black community, which has already seen 58 suicides this year, according to the medical examiner’s office. That outpaces 56 from all of 2019 and 33 during the same time period last year."

 and

"In June, Fresno reported 17 suicide deaths in one month, the highest number in almost three years and up from 10 in June 2019."

Those work out to 'excesses'  of 75% and 70%, respectively.  Of course they are ridiculously small to be used for any kind of extrapolation, but if we do, we'd expect a rise of something like 0.75*47,000*0.5 (the 47,000 is suicides last year, and the 0.5 is to account for the data only covering about a half year), which works out to about 17,600.  While that's a big number, it would only explain about 20% of the excess deaths.

For domestic abuse I could not find any hard numbers of fatalities.  There have been numbers for increases in things like calls reporting domestic abuse, inquiries to safe homes, and the like that range from 20% to 50%, with a almost unbelievable 150% rise in "visits to the refuge website" (see here).  Although these are despicable results, it turns out that the estimate of annual deaths is only 1,000 - 1,600.  So unless the numbers have grown far more than any reasonable estimate this simply can't account for more than 3,000 'excess' deaths.

Trying to assign a number of current deaths from the third possible cause, deferred medical care, is hopeless.  There was a nice study in the Lancet which attempted to figure out haw many people would die prematurely over the next five years and the total years of life lost (YLL) would be in England.  The data are distressing to say the least.  Bottom line, they think that a good estimate of total YLL is about 60,000.  That's for England (population 56 million).  We can (completely without justification) say that projects to 350 million years of life lost here in the US.

So it is currently impossible for me to explain the 86,000 excess deaths reported by the CDC which are over and above the CoViD-19 excess deaths.  Nonetheless I do believe that there truly are nearly 86,000 people who have died in the US, who should not have died, and whose deaths must be attributed to the pernicious unintended consequence of the lockdowns.  Further, the lockdowns have been held on so long (in blue states), that truly long lasting economic consequences are going to cause these unintended consequences to last far beyond whenever the lockdowns finally end (if they end?).  

It is my belief that the 'cure' has become worse than the disease, and that the time is past to end the lockdowns.

The Democrats Won't Be Happy Until All Private Enterprise Is Destroyed

I know that title seems like a rather inflammatory and extreme position to take, but I can't figure out how else to explain what is currently going on here in the "Golden State".  I've made my case that the Goober wants our economy destroyed by CoViD-19 repeatedly (actually one could quite reasonably say I've made this point to excess).  But that is hardly the only anti-business action taken recently.

Many of you will have heard about the Union backed anti-business new law, generally referred to as AB5.  That bill originally made it impossible for anyone but doctors and lawyers to generally be an independent contractor, unless you are also registered as a "business".  This of course would require that the business also hold a CA Business License (and of course pay the state annually for that right).  The point of it wasn't to make people become independent business, but rather to make it impossible for businesses like Uber and Lyft to "exploit" their drivers (or so they claimed).  This was based on the (faulty) assumption that the drivers want to be full time employees, when in fact most of the drivers just want to have a small side-hustle to make a few extra bucks.  In truth it was clearly intended to make it possible to Unionize the drivers (and then, of course, get those kick-backs campaign contributions).  So far the app-based companies have gotten an injunction to stop enforcement of this, but it ends on Oct 1.  They've also put a proposition (#22) on the ballot to make the law not apply to these companies.  In the meantime, the legislature has passed all sorts of extra 'exceptions' to the law (like musicians, party planners, etc., etc., etc.), but not the app-based companies in what is clear admission that they have no intention to ever give them a break, but want to reduce the support for the Proposition.  So here's my prediction: Uber and Lyft will cease operations in CA as of Oct 1.  This will be done to bring home to many Californians the realities of the issue.  Nonetheless the sheepeople (Democrat voters) will kill the Proposition, Uber and Lyft will never come back to CA (and lots of other app-based services will stay away), and CA will be left in the past.  If by some miracle, the Proposition passes, then the Democrat Attorney Generalissimo will sue, and our liberal judges will rule the Proposition is Unconstitutional (which in CA is code for "the left doesn't like it, but even though the people do, we'll throw it out.  So much for our lip-service to democracy".

The other big thing our wonderful Democrat controlled legislature has passed is a huge tax on businesses. Well it is huge if you think doubling the tax to add another 11G$ is huge when the current state budget is 222G$ (i.e., a 5% increase in their confiscation of earned income redistribution of ill-gotten money).  But this isn't a general increase, and it hasn't gone into effect, yet.  See it is an attempt to whittle away at Prop 13, by only raising the property tax on businesses (which includes apartments, so take heed you non-home owners).  It might also apply to residential property if used for business purposes (all those folks who are working from home, take heed as well).  For it to take effect it has to be passed as a Proposition (#15 on the Nov ballot).  They expect (and so do I) that a majority of the people will stupidly vote for it, since they will think 'it doesn't apply to me, only to businesses'.  Of course what they won't have thought of is either of the already mentioned risks, nor will they consider the fact that if you raise the property tax on businesses one of two things will happen.  Either 1) the businesses will pass on the increased costs to the people (and the voters will be paying it), or 2) the businesses will go out of business (and that carries a cost to the consumer/voter as well).  I really hope I'm wrong on this one and the Proposition fails, but I won't be holding my breath.

Three Raspberries for All the Other San Diego County Supervisors

So San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond did indeed make his motion yesterday (see my previous post).  It did not pass or fail.  Nope.  Not one of the other four Supervisors was even willing to second the motion so it died aborning.  Well, I at least will remember your total cowardice.  As long as I'm typing I may as well say a couple other things.  

San Diego County is indeed on the precipice of going to purple and having our Goober order all our business to close indoor activities except the essential ones like marijuana dispensaries and the government gyms in San Francisco (see story here - just another example of the politicians and the "rules for thee, but not for me" shown by SF politicians, aka: Nancy "Hairdo" Pelosi, Kamela "Biden's a Trojan Horse" Harris, and, of course Goober Nuisance).  We find ourselves there because the 18-22 year old students of SDSU came back to campus and did what 18-22 year olds do at SDSU: party.  Today "party" = "spread CoViD".  So unsurprisingly the case rate has gone up, from 5.8, to 6.9, and now to 7.9 (all are per 100,000 SD County residents).  I have already ranted about how hopelessly complicated the calculation of this number is, but I will nonetheless complain that I do not see how our rates could have gone up for the last three weeks.  Our County has released "the numbers of cases by episode date", but only as a graph. I took my best try to determine the three numbers for the last three weeks (actually weeks 3, 2, and 1 full week ago).  I simply can't get the ratios needed to match the reported relative case rates (and I took my time to read the data off the plot and actually allowed the weekly totals to run over every possible periods of one consecutive weeks - it just won't work).  I know that must be due to the Goober's team doing their adjustments (i.e.doing the voodoo they do).  Still it is frustrating to be completely at the mercy of such indefensible numeric manipulation.

What will happen if we get to purple?  Will our deaths suddenly jump?  Nope. look at the data I have below in Table 1 for my predictions for weekly death totals and the actuals (especially look at the actuals).  There simply hasn't been a growth expected and there hasn't been any growth in the actuals.  Why?  Because (as I've said before) the case growth is in the young people (40 and under, with all of it in the 10-30 range for the recent SDSU driven increase).  These folks simply die at such a low rate that it would take a growth in their case rates of at least an order of magnitude to see a real blip up in the deaths. 

But one thing that will happen if we go purple is that many businesses (particularly the restaurants) will face the dilemma of either violating the orders, or closing for good.  See this story - it's long but worth a listen.  

_________________

Table 1.  Predictions and results through last week (week ending  09/12/2020) and my prediction for this week.

Week Ending	Prediction	Observed
7/04/2020	54	27
7/11/2020	49	35
7/18/2020	61	56
7/25/2020	51	55
8/01/2020	53	32
8/08/2020	44	29
8/15/2020	45	32
8/22/2020	31	34
8/29/2020	34	22
9/05/2020	32	25
9/12/2020	33	27
9/19/2020	29	??

Three Cheers for Jim Desmond, San Diego County Supervisor for District 5 (R.)

Jim Desmond has proposed to the San Diego County (SDC) Board of Supervisors that we in SDC no longer enforce the State's CoViD-19 rules.  He is doing this because he has realized (quite some time ago) that the rules and procedures the state has implemented are crazy AND unreasonable.  (To hear it in his words, rather than my interpretation go here.)

Supervisor Desmond understands that the hospitalizations are down, ICU cases are down, and the supply of PPE for the medical workers is doing great.  These were, after all, the reasons we were given to lockdown in the first place, but are completely ignored by our Goober.  Supervisor Desmond understands that the Goober's "case adjustment factor" is completely indefensible.  Supervisor Desmond understands that if we force business to re-re-close, many will never get to re-re-open.  Supervisor Desmond understands that the risks are greatly reduced versus the early days of the 'pandemic'.  [Compare: Over the period April 13-30, there were 1,781 new cases and 84 deaths (4.7%).  Over the same time period August 13-30, there were 4,539 cases, but only 60 deaths (1.3%).  This is due to the excess cases today being in the very young, a decline in the absolute numbers of cases in the very old, and (presumably) better treatments.]  Supervisor Desmond understands that the existing 4-tier system will NEVER let us get to full opening of the economy (no matter how many "re-'s" end up in front of it).  And Supervisor Desmond understands that the recent rise in the case rate is due entirely to the students at SDSU (all of which are in the 10-30 age groups and have virtually no risk of death).  

I really hope our supervisors agree to this act of civil disobedience.  It would be, in my mind, exactly like our state telling the Federal government to pound sand on illegal immigration, or marijuana laws.  And it is about time that our petty little tyrant Goober Nuisance gets force fed a great big "stick-it-up-your-@$$" burger. 

Our Goober Has Moved the Goal Posts Again

Let me start by saying that when I wrote at the end of my previous post that I would "henceforth be ignoring everything I can with regard to this insanity [the Goobers policies for CoViD] and just live my life as a peaceful example of civil disobedience to it" I really did mean it.  And I tried.  But the stuff that has happened in the last few days have pushed me over the edge and I have to either vent here, or seriously risk pissing off Mrs. Ohioan due to my frustration.  So here goes a good vent...

Our Goober has made the location of the goal posts fluid and uncontrollable.  Actually they have become so idiotic and convoluted that based on the explanations I've seen (admittedly filtered through former journalism majors), I simply can not say that I understand them sufficiently that I could actually calculate them.  Hey, I've got a Ph.D. in Analytical Chemistry, published peer reviewed articles in a bunch of physics journals, and taught myself the mathematics of General Relativity for fun, but clearly I should have known that this is just so complicated that I probably shouldn't have expected to be able to understand it.  Right?  Anyways here's the latest...

Not only are we working towards two metrics, wherein our county ends up in one of four colors, which define the extent of the reopening we can do, but now they are 'adjusting' our metrics based on Statewide metrics.  These adjustments are done in the following way (so far as I can determine).  If on a given day the number of tests are below the Statewide average (apparently based on the number of tests divided by the county population, but don't quote me on that), then they add more positive case results to make up for the ones you would have measured, if you'd actually tested at the Statewide average testing rate.  Now they don't say how many of those tests are assumed to be positive (it could be the rate the county reported, it could be the average rate across the State, or it could be just about anything).  I must say that there is no Scientific reason¹ to do this.  I should also note that they also reduce the numbers if you tested more than the average, so the whole thing is just crazy.  It is, of course, impossible to ensure that we test the average number, since there is no way to know how many tests are being given on any given day in the entire rest of the state (or what day the result will be assigned to, see next paragraph).    How many cases might these 'additional', though purely imaginary, cases be?  And if the county numbers are inflated or reduced, do they then use these fictional numbers as the State numbers?  Do they then get passed to the National numbers?  Do they realize that if you add an imaginary number to a real number you get a complex number?    

Leaving aside questions of which basis one must use to express the "adjusted" data, according to this, the tests are NOT assigned to the date they are reported or the date the test was taken.  Nope, they are assigned to the "episode date".  This is defined as the date the person being tested "began feeling symptoms of COVID-19".²  Since the assigned date will always be in the past, what they are doing is actually changing the data for past dates.  Because of this, the weekly average of cases per 100,000 is actually computed over a 7 day period, ending 7 days ago, and only looked at every Tuesday.  So if I understand this, next Tuesday (September 15, 2020) San Diego County will report a new average rate per 100,000, for the cases assigned to the period September 2 - 8, and then the State will adjust it, by adding imaginary positive cases, for those dates where the number of tests in our county were below the Statewide average number of tests, and subtracting 'real' cases if you've tested over the average.  I'd also mention that the adjustment factors mean that no county will really be measured by its numbers, but rather by some manically fudged numbers.  It reminds of the old saw "figures don't lie, but liars can figure".   I feel compelled to note that the Goober said this new system would be "Simple".  I would suggest that this is an epic fail at "Simple".

And yet as Byzantine as all this is, it still isn't the worst of it.  This entire Rube Goldberg process is ignoring a very key fact.  THE TESTS ARE NOT PERFECT.  Does the Goober and his crack team (crackhead team?) recall the story from late August about the 77 NFL players testing positive and then all of them retesting negative (here)? Or the story from early August about the Ohio Governor seeing the same 'first positive, then negative' (here)?  One should ask, are we retesting everyone to help ensure that a positive result is really a positive?  Even if we are (we aren't!) we should also take heed of the story from, that bastion of lefty politics, the New York Times which points out that even the PCR test (which really should be nearly fool proof) is not proof against improper procedures and may have been reporting nearly 10 times too many positives.³  Given false positives there is some lowest practical 'positivity rate' that can be achieved.  What precisely this is depends on the accuracy of the test, the quality of the sample, and the professionalism of the laboratory and its personnel.  In the end, we can't know what that is, but it does mean that a rate of 0 is simply impossible, and progress at reducing the positives must eventually run into a minimum percentage. 

Finally, I have to bring up that the positive test results in San Diego County is also being significantly impacted by the students who've returned to San Diego State University.  Since August, and particularly in the last week, the number of students testing positive have spiked (they got back to campus and had some parties, so, surprise, some of them got sick).  As an example of the impact it has had on our county, the positive tests per day per 100,000 for this last week jumped from 5.8 to 6.9 (and if it gets over 7, we go from Red to Purple - which is the worst color).  Looking at the weekly data (which I only have by date reported) this past week had an increase of about 350 cases over the previous week.  In that time period SDSU reported almost 300 cases.  When you look at the County break down by age groups, the groups from 10-30 account for a rise of about 400, with the rest of the age groups showing a total decline of about 50 (and none of those age groups show any significant increases).  So while SDSU by itself doesn't seem to account for the total increase in the 10-30 age group, it wouldn't be surprising if in fact the parties plus other secondary spread in the college age groups from students to non-students would be more than adequate to explain the increase.  So should San Diego County be re-re-closed (that's what it would be) due to the case rise in these age groups?  If so, we would be closed due to cases (even if real) in the demographics we should be nearly completely unconcerned about.⁴

___________________

1 - But there is plenty of Political reason to make these adjustments.  If you remember from my post of August 27, good old Goober Nuisance decided not to follow CDC guidance that we should only be testing symptomatic people.  Well one way he can ensure the counties don't decide to follow that guidance is to penalize any county that is, in his opinion, under testing.  And there is no better way to punish them than to continue to strangle their economy.  Q.E.D. 

2 - This makes me wonder if we are testing people who don't have symptoms (as per the first footnote) how does one assign a positive result to a date where they began to feel symptoms?  How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?  And speaking of pin-heads, does our Goober realize how absurd this is?  Does he realize how absolutely inconsistent he's being?  Does he care?  (That last question was rhetorical.)

3 - As an analytical chemist I am appalled by the report that labs have been over amplifying the PCR tests.  This is, in my opinion, absolutely such that any lab that did this should be stripped of any all certifications they currently hold and the individuals responsible should have their employment and certifications terminated. 

4 - And as this demographic distribution has been the core of my argument against the re-closing (let alone a re-re-closing), I state (but will not show my work) that with respect to the deaths and my predictions for them (versus what our Goober seems to tolerate - as per a bunch of previous posts), that the shutout continues and is currently a score of Goober Nuisance: 0, Me: 9.