So San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond did indeed make his motion yesterday (see my previous post). It did not pass or fail. Nope. Not one of the other four Supervisors was even willing to second the motion so it died aborning. Well, I at least will remember your total cowardice. As long as I'm typing I may as well say a couple other things.
San Diego County is indeed on the precipice of going to purple and having our Goober order all our business to close indoor activities except the essential ones like marijuana dispensaries and the government gyms in San Francisco (see story here - just another example of the politicians and the "rules for thee, but not for me" shown by SF politicians, aka: Nancy "Hairdo" Pelosi, Kamela "Biden's a Trojan Horse" Harris, and, of course Goober Nuisance). We find ourselves there because the 18-22 year old students of SDSU came back to campus and did what 18-22 year olds do at SDSU: party. Today "party" = "spread CoViD". So unsurprisingly the case rate has gone up, from 5.8, to 6.9, and now to 7.9 (all are per 100,000 SD County residents). I have already ranted about how hopelessly complicated the calculation of this number is, but I will nonetheless complain that I do not see how our rates could have gone up for the last three weeks. Our County has released "the numbers of cases by episode date", but only as a graph. I took my best try to determine the three numbers for the last three weeks (actually weeks 3, 2, and 1 full week ago). I simply can't get the ratios needed to match the reported relative case rates (and I took my time to read the data off the plot and actually allowed the weekly totals to run over every possible periods of one consecutive weeks - it just won't work). I know that must be due to the Goober's team doing their adjustments (i.e.doing the voodoo they do). Still it is frustrating to be completely at the mercy of such indefensible numeric manipulation.
What will happen if we get to purple? Will our deaths suddenly jump? Nope. look at the data I have below in Table 1 for my predictions for weekly death totals and the actuals (especially look at the actuals). There simply hasn't been a growth expected and there hasn't been any growth in the actuals. Why? Because (as I've said before) the case growth is in the young people (40 and under, with all of it in the 10-30 range for the recent SDSU driven increase). These folks simply die at such a low rate that it would take a growth in their case rates of at least an order of magnitude to see a real blip up in the deaths.
But one thing that will happen if we go purple is that many businesses (particularly the restaurants) will face the dilemma of either violating the orders, or closing for good. See this story - it's long but worth a listen.
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Table 1. Predictions and results through last week (week ending 09/12/2020) and my prediction for this week.
| Week Ending | Prediction | Observed |
|---|---|---|
7/04/2020
|
54
|
27
|
7/11/2020
|
49
|
35
|
7/18/2020
|
61
|
56
|
7/25/2020
|
51
|
55
|
8/01/2020
|
53
|
32
|
8/08/2020
|
44
|
29
|
8/15/2020
|
45
|
32
|
8/22/2020
|
31
|
34
|
8/29/2020
|
34
|
22
|
9/05/2020
|
32
|
25
|
9/12/2020
|
33
|
27
|
9/19/2020
|
29
|
??
|
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