Let me start by saying that when I wrote at the end of my previous post that I would "henceforth be ignoring everything I can with regard to this insanity [the Goobers policies for CoViD] and just live my life as a peaceful example of civil disobedience to it" I really did mean it. And I tried. But the stuff that has happened in the last few days have pushed me over the edge and I have to either vent here, or seriously risk pissing off Mrs. Ohioan due to my frustration. So here goes a good vent...
Our Goober has made the location of the goal posts fluid and uncontrollable. Actually they have become so idiotic and convoluted that based on the explanations I've seen (admittedly filtered through former journalism majors), I simply can not say that I understand them sufficiently that I could actually calculate them. Hey, I've got a Ph.D. in Analytical Chemistry, published peer reviewed articles in a bunch of physics journals, and taught myself the mathematics of General Relativity for fun, but clearly I should have known that this is just so complicated that I probably shouldn't have expected to be able to understand it. Right? Anyways here's the latest...
Not only are we working towards two metrics, wherein our county ends up in one of four colors, which define the extent of the reopening we can do, but now they are 'adjusting' our metrics based on Statewide metrics. These adjustments are done in the following way (so far as I can determine). If on a given day the number of tests are below the Statewide average (apparently based on the number of tests divided by the county population, but don't quote me on that), then they add more positive case results to make up for the ones you would have measured, if you'd actually tested at the Statewide average testing rate. Now they don't say how many of those tests are assumed to be positive (it could be the rate the county reported, it could be the average rate across the State, or it could be just about anything). I must say that there is no Scientific reason1 to do this. I should also note that they also reduce the numbers if you tested more than the average, so the whole thing is just crazy. It is, of course, impossible to ensure that we test the average number, since there is no way to know how many tests are being given on any given day in the entire rest of the state (or what day the result will be assigned to, see next paragraph). How many cases might these 'additional', though purely imaginary, cases be? And if the county numbers are inflated or reduced, do they then use these fictional numbers as the State numbers? Do they then get passed to the National numbers? Do they realize that if you add an imaginary number to a real number you get a complex number?
Leaving aside questions of which basis one must use to express the "adjusted" data, according to this, the tests are NOT assigned to the date they are reported or the date the test was taken. Nope, they are assigned to the "episode date". This is defined as the date the person being tested "began feeling symptoms of COVID-19".2 Since the assigned date will always be in the past, what they are doing is actually changing the data for past dates. Because of this, the weekly average of cases per 100,000 is actually computed over a 7 day period, ending 7 days ago, and only looked at every Tuesday. So if I understand this, next Tuesday (September 15, 2020) San Diego County will report a new average rate per 100,000, for the cases assigned to the period September 2 - 8, and then the State will adjust it, by adding imaginary positive cases, for those dates where the number of tests in our county were below the Statewide average number of tests, and subtracting 'real' cases if you've tested over the average. I'd also mention that the adjustment factors mean that no county will really be measured by its numbers, but rather by some manically fudged numbers. It reminds of the old saw "figures don't lie, but liars can figure". I feel compelled to note that the Goober said this new system would be "Simple". I would suggest that this is an epic fail at "Simple".
And yet as Byzantine as all this is, it still isn't the worst of it. This entire Rube Goldberg process is ignoring a very key fact. THE TESTS ARE NOT PERFECT. Does the Goober and his crack team (crackhead team?) recall the story from late August about the 77 NFL players testing positive and then all of them retesting negative (here)? Or the story from early August about the Ohio Governor seeing the same 'first positive, then negative' (here)? One should ask, are we retesting everyone to help ensure that a positive result is really a positive? Even if we are (we aren't!) we should also take heed of the story from, that bastion of lefty politics, the New York Times which points out that even the PCR test (which really should be nearly fool proof) is not proof against improper procedures and may have been reporting nearly 10 times too many positives.3 Given false positives there is some lowest practical 'positivity rate' that can be achieved. What precisely this is depends on the accuracy of the test, the quality of the sample, and the professionalism of the laboratory and its personnel. In the end, we can't know what that is, but it does mean that a rate of 0 is simply impossible, and progress at reducing the positives must eventually run into a minimum percentage.
Finally, I have to bring up that the positive test results in San Diego County is also being significantly impacted by the students who've returned to San Diego State University. Since August, and particularly in the last week, the number of students testing positive have spiked (they got back to campus and had some parties, so, surprise, some of them got sick). As an example of the impact it has had on our county, the positive tests per day per 100,000 for this last week jumped from 5.8 to 6.9 (and if it gets over 7, we go from Red to Purple - which is the worst color). Looking at the weekly data (which I only have by date reported) this past week had an increase of about 350 cases over the previous week. In that time period SDSU reported almost 300 cases. When you look at the County break down by age groups, the groups from 10-30 account for a rise of about 400, with the rest of the age groups showing a total decline of about 50 (and none of those age groups show any significant increases). So while SDSU by itself doesn't seem to account for the total increase in the 10-30 age group, it wouldn't be surprising if in fact the parties plus other secondary spread in the college age groups from students to non-students would be more than adequate to explain the increase. So should San Diego County be re-re-closed (that's what it would be) due to the case rise in these age groups? If so, we would be closed due to cases (even if real) in the demographics we should be nearly completely unconcerned about.4
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1 - But there is plenty of Political reason to make these adjustments. If you remember from my post of August 27, good old Goober Nuisance decided not to follow CDC guidance that we should only be testing symptomatic people. Well one way he can ensure the counties don't decide to follow that guidance is to penalize any county that is, in his opinion, under testing. And there is no better way to punish them than to continue to strangle their economy. Q.E.D.
2 - This makes me wonder if we are testing people who don't have symptoms (as per the first footnote) how does one assign a positive result to a date where they began to feel symptoms? How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? And speaking of pin-heads, does our Goober realize how absurd this is? Does he realize how absolutely inconsistent he's being? Does he care? (That last question was rhetorical.)
3 - As an analytical chemist I am appalled by the report that labs have been over amplifying the PCR tests. This is, in my opinion, absolutely such that any lab that did this should be stripped of any all certifications they currently hold and the individuals responsible should have their employment and certifications terminated.
4 - And as this demographic distribution has been the core of my argument against the re-closing (let alone a re-re-closing), I state (but will not show my work) that with respect to the deaths and my predictions for them (versus what our Goober seems to tolerate - as per a bunch of previous posts), that the shutout continues and is currently a score of Goober Nuisance: 0, Me: 9.
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